The wingnuts who claim that a reduction in violence in Iraq means that the “surge” is a smashing success will be putting their collective fingers in their collective ears, and singing LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA as loud as they can. Reality just smacked them in the face like a flaccid trout:
Government Study Criticizes Bush Administration’s Measures of Progress in Iraq
Beyond the declines in overall violence in Iraq, several crucial measures the Bush administration uses to demonstrate economic, political and security progress are either incorrect or far more mixed than the administration has acknowledged, according to a report released Monday by the Government Accountability Office.
Over all, the report says, the American plan for a stable Iraq lacks a strategic framework that meshes with the administration’s goals, is falling out of touch with the realities on the ground and contains serious flaws in its operational guidelines.
…
…[A] number of the figures that have been used to show broader progress in Iraq are either misleading or simply incorrect, the report says.
Administration figures, according to the report, broadly overstate gains in some categories, including the readiness of the Iraqi Army, electricity production and how much money Iraq is spending on its reconstruction.
And the security gains themselves rest in large part not on broad-scale advances in political and social reconciliation and a functioning Iraqi government, but on a few specific advances that remain fragile, the report says.
…
“A strategic plan should be a plan that takes you not only through the short term,” said Joseph A. Christoff, director of international affairs and trade at the accountability office.
“If the New Way Forward only takes you through July 2008, then you don’t have any guidance for achieving an Iraq that can do everything on its own,” including dealing with the threat of terrorism and defending its own borders, Mr. Christoff said.
While the military has been successful in implementing tactics that have reduced violence, the latest report shows clearly that strategic gain is largely lacking. The reduction of violence in Iraq was not the strategic goal of the surge. George W. Bush made this clear when he announced the surge in January 2007:
To establish its authority, the Iraqi government plans to take responsibility for security in all of Iraq’s provinces by November. To give every Iraqi citizen a stake in the country’s economy, Iraq will pass legislation to share oil revenues among all Iraqis. To show that it is committed to delivering a better life, the Iraqi government will spend $10 billion of its own money on reconstruction and infrastructure projects that will create new jobs. To empower local leaders, Iraqis plan to hold provincial elections later this year. And to allow more Iraqis to re-enter their nation’s political life, the government will reform de-Baathification laws, and establish a fair process for considering amendments to Iraq’s constitution.
The failure of the surge to meet its stated goals is well documented. The dead-end wingnuts who insist that the surge is a raging success do so in direct contradiction of reality.
The full GAO report [PDF] is available for download.




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